In the Red Zone: Day 2
The first part of the epidemic is the virus. The second is
fear. When the Covid-19 struck China we speculated on the effects it would have
on the global economy. Even a layman like me understood the role Chinese
industry played in global production. China is both the largest exporter [1] of
goods and services and the second largest consumer market [2]. Shutting
down entire cities was certainly going to create some ripples. In early
February, China injected its economy with the equivalent of 174 billion USD of
liquidity [3] hoping to ameliorate the effect the Coronavirus and
the subsequent muted Lunar New Year celebrations. As cases began to rise in
Europe and the US the markets reflected the concerns of the populace. Bad news came
from all directions, the FTSE 100 [4] and Dow Jones both hinted at falls
that brought up memories of the 2008 Financial Crisis. On the side-lines, the
Russia-Saudi Arabia price war has brought the oil prices down [5] which
is likely to hit the largest producer of crude- the United States [6].
Covid-19 plays into this issue as measures to contain it’s spread limit air
travel and restrict people to working from home. The adverse effects on
industry and travel have however had a positive influence on our greenhouse gas
emissions, especially in China where CO2 emissions are down by
around 25% (with respect to other data taken at this time of the year during
past years) and Nitrogen Dioxide by 30% [7][8].
Looking out of the window at the beautiful sunny day that’s
just out of reach, I realise how easy it is to get trapped in the 24-hour news
cycle constantly looking from a sliver of data that the times are changing for
the better. So, what do we occupy ourselves while we self-isolate? I’ve had
more than a few days of sitting in front of the computer from the morning alarm
to bedtime. What hobbies can we cultivate at home? In the evening we escaped for a while to go to
a friend’s house nearby. In retrospect, looking at the rising numbers, it might
not have been a great idea. On the short bus ride over, we noticed changes in
the outside world. The bus was empty, and the front section was cordoned off
with a piece of red and white tape for the driver’s safety. Except for the odd pharmacy
the streets were lined with shuttered shops. Over computer games and dinner,
the conversation drifted to the current job market because one of our friends
was in stuck in unfortunate limbo of finding a job in these uncertain times. When
Italy manages to get over the hump and the situation gets reined in, will
things go back to normal? Or will the disease continue on a domino effect
through other countries and in turn continue to affect Italy’s businesses? Spain,
France and Germany are already reporting an increase in cases. I suppose the
question on our minds was how long it would take us to restore normalcy. The
2009 H1N1 Influenza epidemic took more than a year to finally resolve. For now,
we can set our sights on the nearest milestone- April 3rd and hope
the heroic efforts of everyone braving the world to provide essential services
pay off.
Sources:
[1]
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true&year_high_desc=true
[2]
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.CON.PRVT.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true&year_high_desc=true
[5]
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/oil-prices-crash-opec-russia-saudi-arabia/index.html
[7]
https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china
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